Tips For A Smarter Game
Cognitive biases, sometimes also known under the English term “cognitive biases”, denote incorrect behavior in perception, memory, thought processes, and also in judgment.
While cognitive biases are a part of everyone, they can help us make the wrong decisions in some situations – especially when it comes to gambling, we should therefore be aware of the various fallacies so that we can better avoid them.
Everyone knows the following scenario, for example, You are sitting at the slot machine and have a long dry spell behind you – as a result, some players think that based on past results they should finally make a profit – but when we got inside we all know that Automata, as well as chance, have no memory.
There are many cognitive biases – events as just described lead players to make wrong decisions. Therefore, in this post, we would like to draw attention to the various cognitive biases that could negatively affect our game.
The Gamer’s Fallacy
The above example will likely sound familiar to many players. The gambler’s fallacy, also known as the gambler’s fallacy, states that a random event that has not occurred for a long time is more likely to occur. Or the other way round: a random event that occurred recently is less likely to occur again shortly afterward.
We all know instinctively, of course, that chance has no memory. Even if we get heads a thousand times in a row with a coin toss, the chance of getting tails the next time is still 50% – the probability cannot be reduced by having heads hit so many times in a row is.
The Fallacy Of Optimism
The optimism fallacy, also known as optimism bias, instructs players to overestimate themselves or to underestimate the likelihood that something negative will happen to them themselves. This fallacy becomes clear when betting on your own team.
When an underdog team plays, the probability is high that fans of the team will still rely on their team, even if all the facts speak against it. This is a consequence of the optimism bias that causes some people to overestimate themselves and take risks that they shouldn’t be.
However, optimism bias can strike in many areas: whether smokers, bungee jumpers or stock market traders, many think they are inviolable and that others in their field are at higher risk than they are.
The False Conclusion
It is widely known that people experience distorted perceptions at different amounts. For example, people would say that it is more likely to randomly pull a red ball out of a bowl that contains 89 red balls and 11 blue balls than of a bowl that contains only 9 red balls and 1 blue ball.
Statistically, it should be clear to everyone that the probability of the second bowl is greater than that of the first, but the large amounts give us a false sense of security and distort our perception. Here you should not rely on your gut feeling but on the statistics.
The Reluctance To Bet Against Undesirable Outcomes
This point says that people don’t like to bet on the result who speak against their own ideas – even if they know that the result is more likely to occur. This is especially true when the result speaks against your own identity.
For example, there have been studies in which most hockey fans refused to accept a $ 5 free sports bet against their own team. The reason for this is that the short term amount of money cannot be outweighed by the fact that fans have to carry around a feeling of guilt over the long term for betting against their own values.
Swim With The Crowd
Humans are pack animals and not alone – this is also evident in the betting behavior. Most would bet on a favorite, even if the stakes were designed in such a way that the bet on the underdog pays off.
This behavior makes sense in most cases because favorites are favorites for a good reason – but again, don’t miss the opportunity to consider other teams. Because especially in sports betting, the bet on the underdog can pay off.
Become Aware Of Your Weaknesses
Nobody is perfect – the weaknesses just listed apply not only to gamblers, but to all segments of the population. By reading this blog you have already taken the first step that can help you overcome your own cognitive biases.
So maybe the next time you won’t go back to “black” just because “red” has appeared the last time. Or you will not bet on the favorite in the next sports betting, but win a large amount with an underdog.
We hope we were able to help you a little with this post to recognize your own weaknesses and to overcome them in the long term. So you can do even better the next time you go to the casino or online game library.
Also Read: How To Calculate The Winnings Of A Bet?