Sure Bets are quite popular with some bettors as they provide a 100% safe profit, although not by themselves, it is more of a method of betting that is based on the mistakes a bookmaker may make when setting the odds.
In this article, we are going to learn what a sure bet is, what are sure bet calculators, what are their limitations, how to find them, what types exist, what methods are there to calculate them and what is our opinion about them.
Definition Of Sure Bets?
A sure bet is what is called a “sure bet” (sure = sure / bet = bet) and is made to obtain a 100% profit by betting on all possible options of the same sporting event. In this way, if we fail an option, we can recover what we lost and even make a profit with the benefits provided by the success of the other options.
In this case, its success lies in the poor quote that a bookmaker makes for a certain sporting event, that is, that it offers a quota that does not accurately reflect the percentage of that event happening and, therefore, the quota is higher than it really should be. This is why they are also called arbitrage bets.
Limitations On Sure Bets
That a bet is safe does not mean that it does not have a risk. There are certain circumstances that can block the possible winnings of a safe bet.
Since sure bets are estimation errors by bookmakers, they do not allow this type of practice to be carried out continuously. Therefore, if they detect that the user is taking advantage, they can block the bet and even ban their account.
Update of quotas and disappearance of sure bets
The bookmakers are usually updating the values of the odds constantly and from time to time. Therefore, in the time that a user can take to make 2 bets to establish a sure bet, it is possible that the values of those odds no longer offer the conditions to be a sure bet, losing the opportunity to secure the bet with those 2 bets.
Anomalous circumstances in the event
Either due to injury or due to circumstances beyond the game, it is possible that in some cases the bet will be cancelled, everything will depend on the conditions established by the bookmaker. If the suspension occurs the sure bet would be lame with a forecast and would no longer offer its 100% reliability.
Also Read: Sports Betting Basics For Beginners
How To Find Sure Bets?
There are several ways to find sure bets in sports forecasts, some more laborious but more beneficial and others simpler and faster but more expensive.
It is the most complicated method to find sure bets and the one that requires the most time, since it forces the user to apply various mathematical calculations to establish whether a bet is safe or not and, later, to apply a mathematical formula to establish the stake that is due. bet on each outcome to ensure a 100% profit.
Here it would be necessary to make use of the service of some companies who, in exchange for a monthly payment, provide the location of sure bets and the estimate of the stake that must be bet to obtain a 100% profit.
The Formula For Calculating Sure Bets
To identify a sure bet it is necessary to calculate the ‘spread’ and thus be able to determine the probability of each event. Let’s see the formula that should be applied first:
PROBABILITY = [(1 / odds) * 100]
With this formula, we will calculate the percentage of a certain event happening. If the sum of all the possible options is less than 100%, then we will have a negative ‘spread’ and, therefore, we will be facing a sure bet.
- [Sevilla vs Osasuna = 2.10 / 4.20 / 4.30 (€) = 47.61% / 23.80% / 23.25% = 94.66%]
- [FC Barcelona vs Athletic Bilbao = 2.90 / 2.95 / 2.52 (€) = 34.82% / 33.89% / 39.68% = 108.39%]
As we can see, in the first game we would find a sure bet, while in the second we would not.
Surebet 2, 3 or 4 Results
The easiest thing to do is to try to search for 2-team sporting events, as these are where sure bets can come up most often. However, in events with 3 or more possibilities, there are also options to find sure bets, although to a lesser extent.
See our article “Safe sports betting strategy” to learn more about the ‘spread’ method to obtain safe bets with 2 and 3 options.
Also Read: 5 Tips For Your Betting Strategy
Sure Bets Calculator
It is a tool that allows you to identify if a bet is safe or not by automatically comparing the odds of a certain event in multiple bookmakers, at the same time that it performs the corresponding calculations to establish the stake that must be bet to ensure profits.
In summary, this sure bet calculator allows us to streamline the processes mentioned in the previous section. However, unlike the previous method, most companies require a payment for the use of this tool and those that do not, in the end, end up not being very useful in most cases.
How To Do An Excel To Calculate Sure Bets
One of the tools that we can use when trying to find Sure Bets is an Excel spreadsheet in which we should detail, for example, the following data:
- Betting shops
- Event date
- Participating teams
- Bet made
- Type of bet made
In this way, using one sheet per week or per month, after a year we can analyze all the Sure Bets that have been found throughout that period and start looking for certain patterns that help us identify future Sure Bets.
Our Opinion On Sure Bets
Surebets can be a good option for bettors who are entering the world of gambling and do not want to risk their money.
However, for more experienced bettors they are not recommended since their profit margin ranges between 2% and 5% , quite low figures and they do not offer the necessary incentive to dedicate a lot of dedication over time.